Model line
Duke −21.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 99%
Projected tempo
70.9
possessions
Site
Duke home
1%Win probability99%
The model makes Duke a 21.6-point favorite, winning about 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Florida St. offense vs Duke defense
| Florida St. O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.8#27 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 52.3#132 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 15.2#80 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 30.8#171 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 34.7#190 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 12.8#353 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 52.5#179 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 55.1#55 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 33.1#222 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 71.3#230 | FT% | — |
| 50.6#13 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Florida St. defense
| Duke O | Stat | Florida St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #2771.8 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #22752.2 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #5119.0 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #31934.1 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #12332.7 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #6211.6 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #27155.7 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #22052.5 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #22334.6 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #3244.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Florida St.
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Duke1 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | California94 | W 95–89 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | SMU59 | W 91–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Pittsburgh79 | W 75–74 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 80–71 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
