Model line
Virginia −7.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 79%
Projected tempo
70.7
possessions
Site
Virginia home
21%Win probability79%
The model makes Virginia a 7.6-point favorite, winning about 79 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Louisville offense vs Virginia defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Virginia offense vs Louisville defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
