Model line
Virginia −15.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 95%
Projected tempo
69.5
possessions
Site
Virginia home
5%Win probability95%
The model makes Virginia a 15.6-point favorite, winning about 95 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Notre Dame offense vs Virginia defense
| Notre Dame O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.7#258 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 52.3#133 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 17.0#202 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 31.2#159 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 34.1#205 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 8.8#135 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 47.4#297 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 51.4#198 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 35.6#83 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 69.7#279 | FT% | — |
| 43.5#101 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Virginia offense vs Notre Dame defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Notre Dame D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #25866.7 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #20251.8 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #33814.0 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #3026.7 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #21536.2 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #3017.3 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #26655.4 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #26053.6 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #13533.2 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #1147.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Notre Dame
| Sun, Nov 1 | N | Villanova47 | W 74–72 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Boston College106 | L 69–77 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Stanford81 | L 78–86 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | NC State54 | W 96–90 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Duke1 | L 56–100 |
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
