Model line
Duke −17.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 97%
Projected tempo
70.0
possessions
Site
Duke home
3%Win probability97%
The model makes Duke a 17.3-point favorite, winning about 97 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
North Carolina offense vs Duke defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs North Carolina defense
| Duke O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
