Model line
Louisville −13.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 92%
Projected tempo
71.7
possessions
Site
Louisville home
8%Win probability92%
The model makes Louisville a 13.4-point favorite, winning about 92 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
SMU offense vs Louisville defense
| SMU O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.6#72 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 55.6#28 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 15.7#116 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 35.4#37 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 30.4#301 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 7.5#33 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 54.9#120 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 55.6#48 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 37.1#28 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 74.3#115 | FT% | — |
| 35.9#251 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Louisville offense vs SMU defense
| Louisville O | Stat | SMU D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #7270.6 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #19151.6 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #16816.8 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #23531.6 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #10832.1 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #9111.0 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #34660.9 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #19452.0 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #18734.1 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #947.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
SMU
| Wed, Mar 18 | N | Miami OH108 | L 79–89 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Louisville15 | L 58–62 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Syracuse76 | W 86–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Florida St.64 | L 78–91 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Miami FL13 | L 69–77 |
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
