Model line
Virginia −0.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 51%
Projected tempo
68.8
possessions
Site
Pittsburgh home
51%Win probability49%
The model makes Virginia a 0.3-point favorite, winning about 51 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Virginia offense vs Pittsburgh defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Pittsburgh D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #33864.6 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #28153.4 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #21516.2 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #7028.1 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #8330.9 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #1689.5 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #16751.8 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #26453.7 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #25935.2 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #12841.0 |
Pittsburgh offense vs Virginia defense
| Pittsburgh O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.6#338 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 51.0#194 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 17.3#223 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 33.9#71 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 30.4#300 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 9.2#159 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 52.3#187 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 51.7#183 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 33.4#203 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 67.4#336 | FT% | — |
| 42.6#124 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
Pittsburgh
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | NC State54 | L 88–98 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Stanford81 | W 64–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Syracuse76 | W 71–69 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Florida St.64 | L 74–75 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | California94 | W 72–56 |
