Model line
Duke −3.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 64%
Projected tempo
70.3
possessions
Site
SMU home
64%Win probability36%
The model makes Duke a 3.4-point favorite, winning about 64 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Duke offense vs SMU defense
| Duke O | Stat | SMU D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #7270.6 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #19151.6 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #16816.8 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #23531.6 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #10832.1 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #9111.0 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #34660.9 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #19452.0 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #18734.1 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #947.7 |
SMU offense vs Duke defense
| SMU O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.6#72 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 55.6#28 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 15.7#116 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 35.4#37 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 30.4#301 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 7.5#33 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 54.9#120 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 55.6#48 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 37.1#28 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 74.3#115 | FT% | — |
| 35.9#251 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
SMU
| Wed, Mar 18 | N | Miami OH108 | L 79–89 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Louisville15 | L 58–62 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Syracuse76 | W 86–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Florida St.64 | L 78–91 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Miami FL13 | L 69–77 |
