Model line
Louisville −20.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 98%
Projected tempo
71.6
possessions
Site
Louisville home
2%Win probability98%
The model makes Louisville a 20.1-point favorite, winning about 98 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Wake Forest offense vs Louisville defense
| Wake Forest O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.4#125 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 52.6#125 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 15.5#108 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 30.1#196 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 35.1#176 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 8.4#97 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 53.5#152 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 53.8#91 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 34.2#167 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 77.9#20 | FT% | — |
| 44.0#91 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Louisville offense vs Wake Forest defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Wake Forest D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #12569.4 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #20751.9 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #11017.8 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #30433.2 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #20435.7 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #8711.1 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #30057.1 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #27553.9 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #12233.0 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #2046.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Wake Forest
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Illinois St.116 | L 75–78 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Navy290 | W 82–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Clemson44 | L 62–71 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Virginia Tech48 | W 95–89 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | California94 | W 80–73 |
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
