Model line
SMU −11.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
SMU 88%
Projected tempo
71.2
possessions
Site
SMU home
12%Win probability88%
The model makes SMU a 11.1-point favorite, winning about 88 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
California offense vs SMU defense
| California O | Stat | SMU D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#126 | Tempo | #7270.6 |
| 52.7#112 | eFG% | #19151.6 |
| 15.2#77 | TOV% | #16816.8 |
| 25.9#324 | ORB% | #23531.6 |
| 36.8#135 | FT rate | #10832.1 |
| 11.3#321 | Block% | #9111.0 |
| 54.2#134 | Assist% | #34660.9 |
| 50.8#217 | 2P% | #19452.0 |
| 36.9#30 | 3P% | #18734.1 |
| 77.8#21 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#115 | 3PA rate | #947.7 |
SMU offense vs California defense
| SMU O | Stat | California D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.6#72 | Tempo | #12669.3 |
| 55.6#28 | eFG% | #8949.8 |
| 15.7#116 | TOV% | #20816.2 |
| 35.4#37 | ORB% | #17030.2 |
| 30.4#301 | FT rate | #23637.0 |
| 7.5#33 | Block% | #2108.7 |
| 54.9#120 | Assist% | #27956.0 |
| 55.6#48 | 2P% | #20552.2 |
| 37.1#28 | 3P% | #3030.8 |
| 74.3#115 | FT% | — |
| 35.9#251 | 3PA rate | #12940.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
California
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Saint Joseph's125 | L 75–76 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Illinois Chicago105 | W 91–73 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Florida St.64 | L 89–95 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 73–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 76–65 |
SMU
| Wed, Mar 18 | N | Miami OH108 | L 79–89 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Louisville15 | L 58–62 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Syracuse76 | W 86–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Florida St.64 | L 78–91 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Miami FL13 | L 69–77 |
