Model line
Louisville −18.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 97%
Projected tempo
70.2
possessions
Site
Louisville home
3%Win probability97%
The model makes Louisville a 18.4-point favorite, winning about 97 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Pittsburgh offense vs Louisville defense
| Pittsburgh O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.6#338 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 51.0#194 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 17.3#223 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 33.9#71 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 30.4#300 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 9.2#159 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 52.3#187 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 51.7#183 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 33.4#203 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 67.4#336 | FT% | — |
| 42.6#124 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Louisville offense vs Pittsburgh defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Pittsburgh D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #33864.6 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #28153.4 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #21516.2 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #7028.1 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #8330.9 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #1689.5 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #16751.8 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #26453.7 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #25935.2 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #12841.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Pittsburgh
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | NC State54 | L 88–98 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Stanford81 | W 64–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Syracuse76 | W 71–69 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Florida St.64 | L 74–75 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | California94 | W 72–56 |
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
