Model line
Duke −12.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 90%
Projected tempo
70.0
possessions
Site
Duke home
10%Win probability90%
The model makes Duke a 12.2-point favorite, winning about 90 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Miami FL offense vs Duke defense
| Miami FL O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#129 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 55.5#30 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 16.1#145 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 37.1#16 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 37.8#107 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 10.3#261 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 54.2#136 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 56.8#35 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 35.1#109 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 68.1#322 | FT% | — |
| 31.9#330 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Miami FL defense
| Duke O | Stat | Miami FL D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #12969.3 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #18651.5 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #9018.2 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #2026.1 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #4629.1 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #1459.9 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #25254.9 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #11250.3 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #27435.4 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #12341.1 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Miami FL
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Purdue29 | L 69–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Missouri34 | W 80–66 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Virginia14 | L 62–84 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Louisville15 | W 78–73 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Louisville15 | L 89–92 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
