Model line
California −3.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
California 65%
Projected tempo
71.1
possessions
Site
California home
35%Win probability65%
The model makes California a 3.6-point favorite, winning about 65 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
NC State offense vs California defense
| NC State O | Stat | California D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#115 | Tempo | #12669.3 |
| 55.0#40 | eFG% | #8949.8 |
| 13.1#10 | TOV% | #20816.2 |
| 28.2#258 | ORB% | #17030.2 |
| 35.1#174 | FT rate | #23637.0 |
| 9.4#177 | Block% | #2108.7 |
| 54.6#123 | Assist% | #27956.0 |
| 52.6#146 | 2P% | #20552.2 |
| 38.8#8 | 3P% | #3030.8 |
| 76.8#37 | FT% | — |
| 43.4#104 | 3PA rate | #12940.9 |
California offense vs NC State defense
| California O | Stat | NC State D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#126 | Tempo | #11569.5 |
| 52.7#112 | eFG% | #25452.7 |
| 15.2#77 | TOV% | #9118.2 |
| 25.9#324 | ORB% | #18230.5 |
| 36.8#135 | FT rate | #23236.9 |
| 11.3#321 | Block% | #10210.7 |
| 54.2#134 | Assist% | #9649.3 |
| 50.8#217 | 2P% | #20952.2 |
| 36.9#30 | 3P% | #28135.5 |
| 77.8#21 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#115 | 3PA rate | #3444.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
NC State
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Texas10 | L 66–68 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Virginia14 | L 74–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Pittsburgh79 | W 98–88 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Stanford81 | L 84–85 |
| Mon, Mar 2 | H | Duke1 | L 64–93 |
California
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Saint Joseph's125 | L 75–76 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Illinois Chicago105 | W 91–73 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Florida St.64 | L 89–95 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 73–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 76–65 |
