Model line
Louisville −5.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 71%
Projected tempo
71.2
possessions
Site
Boston College home
71%Win probability29%
The model makes Louisville a 5.3-point favorite, winning about 71 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Louisville offense vs Boston College defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Boston College D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #28266.3 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #6248.9 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #29314.9 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #8928.6 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #16634.6 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #6011.6 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #8048.6 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #8549.6 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #5831.9 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #19639.0 |
Boston College offense vs Louisville defense
| Boston College O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.3#282 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 47.0#337 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 15.4#96 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 28.3#251 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 32.4#250 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 10.0#235 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 47.4#295 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 49.1#277 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 29.4#347 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 65.3#358 | FT% | — |
| 42.4#128 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
Boston College
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Notre Dame72 | W 77–69 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Virginia Tech48 | L 63–72 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Miami FL13 | L 54–76 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Wake Forest82 | W 68–67 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | SMU59 | L 70–94 |
