Model line
North Carolina −9.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina 85%
Projected tempo
71.0
possessions
Site
North Carolina home
15%Win probability85%
The model makes North Carolina a 9.8-point favorite, winning about 85 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
SMU offense vs North Carolina defense
| SMU O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.6#72 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 55.6#28 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 15.7#116 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 35.4#37 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 30.4#301 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 7.5#33 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 54.9#120 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 55.6#48 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 37.1#28 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 74.3#115 | FT% | — |
| 35.9#251 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs SMU defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | SMU D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #7270.6 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #19151.6 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #16816.8 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #23531.6 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #10832.1 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #9111.0 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #34660.9 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #19452.0 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #18734.1 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #947.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
SMU
| Wed, Mar 18 | N | Miami OH108 | L 79–89 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Louisville15 | L 58–62 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Syracuse76 | W 86–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Florida St.64 | L 78–91 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Miami FL13 | L 69–77 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
