Model line
Duke −21.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 99%
Projected tempo
69.5
possessions
Site
Duke home
1%Win probability99%
The model makes Duke a 21.9-point favorite, winning about 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Notre Dame offense vs Duke defense
| Notre Dame O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.7#258 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 52.3#133 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 17.0#202 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 31.2#159 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 34.1#205 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 8.8#135 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 47.4#297 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 51.4#198 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 35.6#83 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 69.7#279 | FT% | — |
| 43.5#101 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Notre Dame defense
| Duke O | Stat | Notre Dame D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #25866.7 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #20251.8 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #33814.0 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #3026.7 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #21536.2 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #3017.3 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #26655.4 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #26053.6 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #13533.2 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #1147.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Notre Dame
| Sun, Nov 1 | N | Villanova47 | W 74–72 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Boston College106 | L 69–77 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Stanford81 | L 78–86 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | NC State54 | W 96–90 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Duke1 | L 56–100 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
