Model line
Duke −5.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 71%
Projected tempo
70.2
possessions
Site
Wake Forest home
71%Win probability29%
The model makes Duke a 5.4-point favorite, winning about 71 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Duke offense vs Wake Forest defense
| Duke O | Stat | Wake Forest D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #12569.4 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #20751.9 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #11017.8 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #30433.2 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #20435.7 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #8711.1 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #30057.1 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #27553.9 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #12233.0 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #2046.4 |
Wake Forest offense vs Duke defense
| Wake Forest O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.4#125 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 52.6#125 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 15.5#108 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 30.1#196 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 35.1#176 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 8.4#97 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 53.5#152 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 53.8#91 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 34.2#167 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 77.9#20 | FT% | — |
| 44.0#91 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
Wake Forest
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Illinois St.116 | L 75–78 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Navy290 | W 82–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Clemson44 | L 62–71 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Virginia Tech48 | W 95–89 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | California94 | W 80–73 |
