Model line
North Carolina −4.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina 67%
Projected tempo
70.0
possessions
Site
North Carolina home
33%Win probability67%
The model makes North Carolina a 4.1-point favorite, winning about 67 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Virginia offense vs North Carolina defense
| Virginia O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs Virginia defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
