Model line
Louisville −0.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 51%
Projected tempo
71.0
possessions
Site
Syracuse home
51%Win probability49%
The model makes Louisville a 0.2-point favorite, winning about 51 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Louisville offense vs Syracuse defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Syracuse D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #21167.8 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #11950.3 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #12817.4 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #31233.6 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #12032.6 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #615.4 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #20253.0 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #9349.8 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #19134.1 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #28935.9 |
Syracuse offense vs Louisville defense
| Syracuse O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.8#211 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 52.6#122 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 16.0#142 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 29.2#230 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 35.1#175 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 7.9#55 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 47.1#302 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 54.5#76 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 32.9#239 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 64.8#361 | FT% | — |
| 37.2#227 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
Syracuse
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | SMU59 | L 69–86 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Pittsburgh79 | L 69–71 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Louisville15 | L 62–77 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 83–88 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | North Carolina39 | L 64–77 |
