Model line
North Carolina −12.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina 91%
Projected tempo
70.4
possessions
Site
North Carolina home
9%Win probability91%
The model makes North Carolina a 12.7-point favorite, winning about 91 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Stanford offense vs North Carolina defense
| Stanford O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.9#204 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 51.7#165 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 15.5#107 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 32.3#114 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 35.7#162 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 9.4#180 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 46.3#311 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 50.4#246 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 35.6#85 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 73.1#166 | FT% | — |
| 44.2#86 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs Stanford defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Stanford D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #20467.9 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #17251.2 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #8618.3 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #16630.1 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #30540.3 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #13010.2 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #842.7 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #16851.5 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #16733.7 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #34233.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Stanford
| Thu, Apr 2 | N | West Virginia51 | L 77–82 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Pittsburgh79 | L 63–64 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | NC State54 | W 85–84 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Notre Dame72 | W 86–78 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | SMU59 | W 95–75 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
