Model line
Notre Dame −8.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Notre Dame 82%
Projected tempo
70.4
possessions
Site
Notre Dame home
18%Win probability82%
The model makes Notre Dame a 8.6-point favorite, winning about 82 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
California offense vs Notre Dame defense
| California O | Stat | Notre Dame D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#126 | Tempo | #25866.7 |
| 52.7#112 | eFG% | #20251.8 |
| 15.2#77 | TOV% | #33814.0 |
| 25.9#324 | ORB% | #3026.7 |
| 36.8#135 | FT rate | #21536.2 |
| 11.3#321 | Block% | #3017.3 |
| 54.2#134 | Assist% | #26655.4 |
| 50.8#217 | 2P% | #26053.6 |
| 36.9#30 | 3P% | #13533.2 |
| 77.8#21 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#115 | 3PA rate | #1147.4 |
Notre Dame offense vs California defense
| Notre Dame O | Stat | California D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.7#258 | Tempo | #12669.3 |
| 52.3#133 | eFG% | #8949.8 |
| 17.0#202 | TOV% | #20816.2 |
| 31.2#159 | ORB% | #17030.2 |
| 34.1#205 | FT rate | #23637.0 |
| 8.8#135 | Block% | #2108.7 |
| 47.4#297 | Assist% | #27956.0 |
| 51.4#198 | 2P% | #20552.2 |
| 35.6#83 | 3P% | #3030.8 |
| 69.7#279 | FT% | — |
| 43.5#101 | 3PA rate | #12940.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
California
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Saint Joseph's125 | L 75–76 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Illinois Chicago105 | W 91–73 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Florida St.64 | L 89–95 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 73–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 76–65 |
Notre Dame
| Sun, Nov 1 | N | Villanova47 | W 74–72 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Boston College106 | L 69–77 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Stanford81 | L 78–86 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | NC State54 | W 96–90 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Duke1 | L 56–100 |
