Model line
Florida St. −3.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Florida St. 65%
Projected tempo
71.7
possessions
Site
Florida St. home
35%Win probability65%
The model makes Florida St. a 3.7-point favorite, winning about 65 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
North Carolina offense vs Florida St. defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Florida St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #2771.8 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #22752.2 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #5119.0 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #31934.1 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #12332.7 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #6211.6 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #27155.7 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #22052.5 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #22334.6 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #3244.9 |
Florida St. offense vs North Carolina defense
| Florida St. O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.8#27 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 52.3#132 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 15.2#80 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 30.8#171 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 34.7#190 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 12.8#353 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 52.5#179 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 55.1#55 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 33.1#222 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 71.3#230 | FT% | — |
| 50.6#13 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
Florida St.
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Duke1 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | California94 | W 95–89 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | SMU59 | W 91–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Pittsburgh79 | W 75–74 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 80–71 |
