Model line
Duke −27.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke >99%
Projected tempo
69.7
possessions
Site
Duke home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Duke a 27.7-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Stanford offense vs Duke defense
| Stanford O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.9#204 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 51.7#165 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 15.5#107 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 32.3#114 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 35.7#162 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 9.4#180 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 46.3#311 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 50.4#246 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 35.6#85 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 73.1#166 | FT% | — |
| 44.2#86 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Stanford defense
| Duke O | Stat | Stanford D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #20467.9 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #17251.2 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #8618.3 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #16630.1 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #30540.3 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #13010.2 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #842.7 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #16851.5 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #16733.7 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #34233.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Stanford
| Thu, Apr 2 | N | West Virginia51 | L 77–82 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Pittsburgh79 | L 63–64 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | NC State54 | W 85–84 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Notre Dame72 | W 86–78 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | SMU59 | W 95–75 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
