Model line
Louisville −21.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 99%
Projected tempo
71.6
possessions
Site
Louisville home
1%Win probability99%
The model makes Louisville a 21.2-point favorite, winning about 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
California offense vs Louisville defense
| California O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#126 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 52.7#112 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 15.2#77 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 25.9#324 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 36.8#135 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 11.3#321 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 54.2#134 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 50.8#217 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 36.9#30 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 77.8#21 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#115 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Louisville offense vs California defense
| Louisville O | Stat | California D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #12669.3 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #8949.8 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #20816.2 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #17030.2 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #23637.0 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #2108.7 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #27956.0 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #20552.2 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #3030.8 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #12940.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
California
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Saint Joseph's125 | L 75–76 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Illinois Chicago105 | W 91–73 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Florida St.64 | L 89–95 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 73–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 76–65 |
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
