Model line
NC State −8.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
NC State 83%
Projected tempo
71.2
possessions
Site
NC State home
18%Win probability83%
The model makes NC State a 8.9-point favorite, winning about 83 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
SMU offense vs NC State defense
| SMU O | Stat | NC State D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.6#72 | Tempo | #11569.5 |
| 55.6#28 | eFG% | #25452.7 |
| 15.7#116 | TOV% | #9118.2 |
| 35.4#37 | ORB% | #18230.5 |
| 30.4#301 | FT rate | #23236.9 |
| 7.5#33 | Block% | #10210.7 |
| 54.9#120 | Assist% | #9649.3 |
| 55.6#48 | 2P% | #20952.2 |
| 37.1#28 | 3P% | #28135.5 |
| 74.3#115 | FT% | — |
| 35.9#251 | 3PA rate | #3444.9 |
NC State offense vs SMU defense
| NC State O | Stat | SMU D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#115 | Tempo | #7270.6 |
| 55.0#40 | eFG% | #19151.6 |
| 13.1#10 | TOV% | #16816.8 |
| 28.2#258 | ORB% | #23531.6 |
| 35.1#174 | FT rate | #10832.1 |
| 9.4#177 | Block% | #9111.0 |
| 54.6#123 | Assist% | #34660.9 |
| 52.6#146 | 2P% | #19452.0 |
| 38.8#8 | 3P% | #18734.1 |
| 76.8#37 | FT% | — |
| 43.4#104 | 3PA rate | #947.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
SMU
| Wed, Mar 18 | N | Miami OH108 | L 79–89 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Louisville15 | L 58–62 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Syracuse76 | W 86–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Florida St.64 | L 78–91 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Miami FL13 | L 69–77 |
NC State
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Texas10 | L 66–68 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Virginia14 | L 74–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Pittsburgh79 | W 98–88 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Stanford81 | L 84–85 |
| Mon, Mar 2 | H | Duke1 | L 64–93 |
