Model line
North Carolina −9.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina 84%
Projected tempo
70.9
possessions
Site
North Carolina home
16%Win probability84%
The model makes North Carolina a 9.5-point favorite, winning about 84 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
NC State offense vs North Carolina defense
| NC State O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#115 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 55.0#40 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 13.1#10 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 28.2#258 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 35.1#174 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 9.4#177 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 54.6#123 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 52.6#146 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 38.8#8 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 76.8#37 | FT% | — |
| 43.4#104 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs NC State defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | NC State D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #11569.5 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #25452.7 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #9118.2 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #18230.5 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #23236.9 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #10210.7 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #9649.3 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #20952.2 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #28135.5 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #3444.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
NC State
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Texas10 | L 66–68 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Virginia14 | L 74–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Pittsburgh79 | W 98–88 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Stanford81 | L 84–85 |
| Mon, Mar 2 | H | Duke1 | L 64–93 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
