Model line
Duke −26.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke >99%
Projected tempo
68.7
possessions
Site
Duke home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Duke a 26.4-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Pittsburgh offense vs Duke defense
| Pittsburgh O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.6#338 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 51.0#194 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 17.3#223 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 33.9#71 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 30.4#300 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 9.2#159 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 52.3#187 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 51.7#183 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 33.4#203 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 67.4#336 | FT% | — |
| 42.6#124 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Pittsburgh defense
| Duke O | Stat | Pittsburgh D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #33864.6 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #28153.4 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #21516.2 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #7028.1 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #8330.9 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #1689.5 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #16751.8 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #26453.7 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #25935.2 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #12841.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Pittsburgh
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | NC State54 | L 88–98 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Stanford81 | W 64–63 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Syracuse76 | W 71–69 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Florida St.64 | L 74–75 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | California94 | W 72–56 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
