Model line
Virginia −2.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 60%
Projected tempo
70.2
possessions
Site
California home
60%Win probability40%
The model makes Virginia a 2.4-point favorite, winning about 60 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Virginia offense vs California defense
| Virginia O | Stat | California D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #12669.3 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #8949.8 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #20816.2 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #17030.2 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #23637.0 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #2108.7 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #27956.0 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #20552.2 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #3030.8 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #12940.9 |
California offense vs Virginia defense
| California O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#126 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 52.7#112 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 15.2#77 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 25.9#324 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 36.8#135 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 11.3#321 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 54.2#134 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 50.8#217 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 36.9#30 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 77.8#21 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#115 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
California
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Saint Joseph's125 | L 75–76 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Illinois Chicago105 | W 91–73 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Florida St.64 | L 89–95 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 73–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 76–65 |
