Model line
Virginia −0.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 52%
Projected tempo
69.7
possessions
Site
Stanford home
52%Win probability48%
The model makes Virginia a 0.4-point favorite, winning about 52 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Virginia offense vs Stanford defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Stanford D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #20467.9 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #17251.2 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #8618.3 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #16630.1 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #30540.3 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #13010.2 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #842.7 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #16851.5 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #16733.7 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #34233.5 |
Stanford offense vs Virginia defense
| Stanford O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.9#204 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 51.7#165 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 15.5#107 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 32.3#114 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 35.7#162 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 9.4#180 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 46.3#311 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 50.4#246 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 35.6#85 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 73.1#166 | FT% | — |
| 44.2#86 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
Stanford
| Thu, Apr 2 | N | West Virginia51 | L 77–82 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Pittsburgh79 | L 63–64 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | NC State54 | W 85–84 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Notre Dame72 | W 86–78 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | SMU59 | W 95–75 |
