Model line
California −4.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
California 68%
Projected tempo
71.9
possessions
Site
California home
32%Win probability68%
The model makes California a 4.3-point favorite, winning about 68 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Florida St. offense vs California defense
| Florida St. O | Stat | California D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.8#27 | Tempo | #12669.3 |
| 52.3#132 | eFG% | #8949.8 |
| 15.2#80 | TOV% | #20816.2 |
| 30.8#171 | ORB% | #17030.2 |
| 34.7#190 | FT rate | #23637.0 |
| 12.8#353 | Block% | #2108.7 |
| 52.5#179 | Assist% | #27956.0 |
| 55.1#55 | 2P% | #20552.2 |
| 33.1#222 | 3P% | #3030.8 |
| 71.3#230 | FT% | — |
| 50.6#13 | 3PA rate | #12940.9 |
California offense vs Florida St. defense
| California O | Stat | Florida St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#126 | Tempo | #2771.8 |
| 52.7#112 | eFG% | #22752.2 |
| 15.2#77 | TOV% | #5119.0 |
| 25.9#324 | ORB% | #31934.1 |
| 36.8#135 | FT rate | #12332.7 |
| 11.3#321 | Block% | #6211.6 |
| 54.2#134 | Assist% | #27155.7 |
| 50.8#217 | 2P% | #22052.5 |
| 36.9#30 | 3P% | #22334.6 |
| 77.8#21 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#115 | 3PA rate | #3244.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Florida St.
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Duke1 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | California94 | W 95–89 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | SMU59 | W 91–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Pittsburgh79 | W 75–74 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 80–71 |
California
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Saint Joseph's125 | L 75–76 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Illinois Chicago105 | W 91–73 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Florida St.64 | L 89–95 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 73–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 76–65 |
