Model line
Louisville −10.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 87%
Projected tempo
71.4
possessions
Site
Louisville home
13%Win probability87%
The model makes Louisville a 10.8-point favorite, winning about 87 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
North Carolina offense vs Louisville defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Louisville offense vs North Carolina defense
| Louisville O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
