Model line
Duke −6.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 74%
Projected tempo
69.5
possessions
Site
Syracuse home
74%Win probability26%
The model makes Duke a 6.2-point favorite, winning about 74 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Duke offense vs Syracuse defense
| Duke O | Stat | Syracuse D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #21167.8 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #11950.3 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #12817.4 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #31233.6 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #12032.6 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #615.4 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #20253.0 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #9349.8 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #19134.1 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #28935.9 |
Syracuse offense vs Duke defense
| Syracuse O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.8#211 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 52.6#122 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 16.0#142 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 29.2#230 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 35.1#175 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 7.9#55 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 47.1#302 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 54.5#76 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 32.9#239 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 64.8#361 | FT% | — |
| 37.2#227 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
Syracuse
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | SMU59 | L 69–86 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Pittsburgh79 | L 69–71 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Louisville15 | L 62–77 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 83–88 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | North Carolina39 | L 64–77 |
