Model line
Virginia −13.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 93%
Projected tempo
70.3
possessions
Site
Virginia home
7%Win probability93%
The model makes Virginia a 13.9-point favorite, winning about 93 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
SMU offense vs Virginia defense
| SMU O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.6#72 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 55.6#28 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 15.7#116 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 35.4#37 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 30.4#301 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 7.5#33 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 54.9#120 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 55.6#48 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 37.1#28 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 74.3#115 | FT% | — |
| 35.9#251 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Virginia offense vs SMU defense
| Virginia O | Stat | SMU D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #7270.6 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #19151.6 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #16816.8 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #23531.6 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #10832.1 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #9111.0 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #34660.9 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #19452.0 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #18734.1 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #947.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
SMU
| Wed, Mar 18 | N | Miami OH108 | L 79–89 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Louisville15 | L 58–62 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Syracuse76 | W 86–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Florida St.64 | L 78–91 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Miami FL13 | L 69–77 |
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
