Model line
Duke −30.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke >99%
Projected tempo
70.1
possessions
Site
Duke home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Duke a 30.9-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
California offense vs Duke defense
| California O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#126 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 52.7#112 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 15.2#77 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 25.9#324 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 36.8#135 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 11.3#321 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 54.2#134 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 50.8#217 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 36.9#30 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 77.8#21 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#115 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs California defense
| Duke O | Stat | California D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #12669.3 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #8949.8 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #20816.2 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #17030.2 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #23637.0 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #2108.7 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #27956.0 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #20552.2 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #3030.8 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #12940.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
California
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Saint Joseph's125 | L 75–76 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Illinois Chicago105 | W 91–73 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Florida St.64 | L 89–95 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 73–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 76–65 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
