Model line
North Carolina −13.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina 93%
Projected tempo
70.9
possessions
Site
North Carolina home
7%Win probability93%
The model makes North Carolina a 13.8-point favorite, winning about 93 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
California offense vs North Carolina defense
| California O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#126 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 52.7#112 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 15.2#77 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 25.9#324 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 36.8#135 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 11.3#321 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 54.2#134 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 50.8#217 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 36.9#30 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 77.8#21 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#115 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs California defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | California D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #12669.3 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #8949.8 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #20816.2 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #17030.2 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #23637.0 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #2108.7 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #27956.0 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #20552.2 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #3030.8 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #12940.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
California
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Saint Joseph's125 | L 75–76 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Illinois Chicago105 | W 91–73 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Florida St.64 | L 89–95 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 73–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 76–65 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
