Model line
California −22.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
California 99%
Projected tempo
71.5
possessions
Site
California home
1%Win probability99%
The model makes California a 22.1-point favorite, winning about 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Southern offense vs California defense
| Southern O | Stat | California D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.4#37 | Tempo | #12669.3 |
| 49.1#288 | eFG% | #8949.8 |
| 16.5#167 | TOV% | #20816.2 |
| 31.4#146 | ORB% | #17030.2 |
| 39.8#61 | FT rate | #23637.0 |
| 10.0#242 | Block% | #2108.7 |
| 52.6#178 | Assist% | #27956.0 |
| 47.7#318 | 2P% | #20552.2 |
| 34.8#131 | 3P% | #3030.8 |
| 69.5#284 | FT% | — |
| 32.1#328 | 3PA rate | #12940.9 |
California offense vs Southern defense
| California O | Stat | Southern D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#126 | Tempo | #3771.4 |
| 52.7#112 | eFG% | #27553.2 |
| 15.2#77 | TOV% | #6818.6 |
| 25.9#324 | ORB% | #21731.3 |
| 36.8#135 | FT rate | #33942.9 |
| 11.3#321 | Block% | #11010.6 |
| 54.2#134 | Assist% | #19652.8 |
| 50.8#217 | 2P% | #20152.1 |
| 36.9#30 | 3P% | #33736.7 |
| 77.8#21 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#115 | 3PA rate | #25137.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Southern
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Prairie View A&M301 | L 66–72 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida A&M317 | W 73–70 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Arkansas Pine Bluff360 | W 84–81 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | A | Alabama A&M313 | W 88–85 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Alabama St.295 | W 71–64 |
California
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Saint Joseph's125 | L 75–76 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Illinois Chicago105 | W 91–73 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Florida St.64 | L 89–95 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 73–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 76–65 |
