Model line
California −24.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
California 100%
Projected tempo
71.0
possessions
Site
California home
1%Win probability100%
The model makes California a 24.6-point favorite, winning about 100 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Texas A&M Commerce offense vs California defense
| Texas A&M Commerce O | Stat | California D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.5#175 | Tempo | #12669.3 |
| 49.2#286 | eFG% | #8949.8 |
| 19.2#330 | TOV% | #20816.2 |
| 25.7#329 | ORB% | #17030.2 |
| 32.0#257 | FT rate | #23637.0 |
| 10.7#287 | Block% | #2108.7 |
| 62.4#14 | Assist% | #27956.0 |
| 51.2#207 | 2P% | #20552.2 |
| 31.3#313 | 3P% | #3030.8 |
| 67.9#328 | FT% | — |
| 46.2#44 | 3PA rate | #12940.9 |
California offense vs Texas A&M Commerce defense
| California O | Stat | Texas A&M Commerce D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#126 | Tempo | #17568.5 |
| 52.7#112 | eFG% | #26752.9 |
| 15.2#77 | TOV% | #15817.0 |
| 25.9#324 | ORB% | #29332.8 |
| 36.8#135 | FT rate | #16434.5 |
| 11.3#321 | Block% | #2208.6 |
| 54.2#134 | Assist% | #28056.0 |
| 50.8#217 | 2P% | #14451.0 |
| 36.9#30 | 3P% | #34737.3 |
| 77.8#21 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#115 | 3PA rate | #23538.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Texas A&M Commerce
| Mon, Mar 2 | A | Texas A&M Corpus Chris203 | L 71–84 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | UT Rio Grande Valley251 | L 55–63 |
| Mon, Feb 23 | H | Houston Christian253 | L 68–69 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Incarnate Word302 | L 73–82 |
| Mon, Feb 16 | H | Southeastern Louisiana269 | W 70–53 |
California
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Saint Joseph's125 | L 75–76 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Illinois Chicago105 | W 91–73 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Florida St.64 | L 89–95 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 73–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 76–65 |
