Model line
California −1.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
California 55%
Projected tempo
71.7
possessions
Site
California home
45%Win probability55%
The model makes California a 1.2-point favorite, winning about 55 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
USC offense vs California defense
| USC O | Stat | California D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#54 | Tempo | #12669.3 |
| 50.4#224 | eFG% | #8949.8 |
| 17.4#232 | TOV% | #20816.2 |
| 32.4#111 | ORB% | #17030.2 |
| 44.2#9 | FT rate | #23637.0 |
| 8.3#85 | Block% | #2108.7 |
| 56.5#81 | Assist% | #27956.0 |
| 51.8#179 | 2P% | #20552.2 |
| 31.7#299 | 3P% | #3030.8 |
| 72.6#183 | FT% | — |
| 34.1#292 | 3PA rate | #12940.9 |
California offense vs USC defense
| California O | Stat | USC D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#126 | Tempo | #5471.0 |
| 52.7#112 | eFG% | #8849.7 |
| 15.2#77 | TOV% | #20316.3 |
| 25.9#324 | ORB% | #27032.2 |
| 36.8#135 | FT rate | #13833.4 |
| 11.3#321 | Block% | #1214.9 |
| 54.2#134 | Assist% | #22854.1 |
| 50.8#217 | 2P% | #19852.0 |
| 36.9#30 | 3P% | #3430.9 |
| 77.8#21 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#115 | 3PA rate | #14840.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
USC
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Washington78 | L 79–83 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | UCLA18 | L 68–89 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Washington78 | L 72–91 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Nebraska19 | L 67–82 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | UCLA18 | L 62–81 |
California
| Sun, Mar 22 | H | Saint Joseph's125 | L 75–76 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Illinois Chicago105 | W 91–73 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Florida St.64 | L 89–95 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Wake Forest82 | L 73–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 76–65 |
