Model line
Saint Mary's −3.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Saint Mary's 66%
Projected tempo
70.7
possessions
Site
Portland home
66%Win probability34%
The model makes Saint Mary's a 3.8-point favorite, winning about 66 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Saint Mary's offense vs Portland defense
| Saint Mary's O | Stat | Portland D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#287 | Tempo | #10569.7 |
| 52.8#111 | eFG% | #25652.7 |
| 16.8#185 | TOV% | #15417.0 |
| 37.5#15 | ORB% | #28432.5 |
| 35.5#164 | FT rate | #11932.6 |
| 8.8#136 | Block% | #2088.8 |
| 57.8#60 | Assist% | #36366.7 |
| 49.8#262 | 2P% | #16051.4 |
| 38.7#10 | 3P% | #30736.1 |
| 80.3#2 | FT% | — |
| 36.4#242 | 3PA rate | #2545.6 |
Portland offense vs Saint Mary's defense
| Portland O | Stat | Saint Mary's D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#105 | Tempo | #28766.2 |
| 51.2#184 | eFG% | #2046.8 |
| 19.7#342 | TOV% | #27215.2 |
| 28.1#264 | ORB% | #423.9 |
| 34.4#199 | FT rate | #1125.7 |
| 6.4#10 | Block% | #1579.7 |
| 61.6#20 | Assist% | #20453.1 |
| 54.7#65 | 2P% | #2346.7 |
| 29.9#344 | 3P% | #4131.3 |
| 74.0#138 | FT% | — |
| 35.4#266 | 3PA rate | #26237.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Saint Mary's
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Texas A&M33 | L 50–63 |
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Santa Clara86 | L 71–76 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Gonzaga17 | W 70–59 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Santa Clara86 | W 86–67 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Washington St.131 | W 83–67 |
Portland
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | San Francisco165 | L 65–82 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Washington St.131 | W 74–68 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Pepperdine154 | W 77–68 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | San Diego157 | W 87–74 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Gonzaga17 | L 48–89 |
