Model line
USC −9.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
USC 84%
Projected tempo
71.5
possessions
Site
San Diego home
84%Win probability16%
The model makes USC a 9.4-point favorite, winning about 84 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
USC offense vs San Diego defense
| USC O | Stat | San Diego D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#54 | Tempo | #16168.8 |
| 50.4#224 | eFG% | #32354.7 |
| 17.4#232 | TOV% | #5518.9 |
| 32.4#111 | ORB% | #32734.5 |
| 44.2#9 | FT rate | #28238.8 |
| 8.3#85 | Block% | #2927.5 |
| 56.5#81 | Assist% | #30457.3 |
| 51.8#179 | 2P% | #35658.5 |
| 31.7#299 | 3P% | #10332.7 |
| 72.6#183 | FT% | — |
| 34.1#292 | 3PA rate | #16040.1 |
San Diego offense vs USC defense
| San Diego O | Stat | USC D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#161 | Tempo | #5471.0 |
| 51.2#185 | eFG% | #8849.7 |
| 17.5#237 | TOV% | #20316.3 |
| 28.1#265 | ORB% | #27032.2 |
| 25.8#358 | FT rate | #13833.4 |
| 10.1#248 | Block% | #1214.9 |
| 59.1#40 | Assist% | #22854.1 |
| 50.8#220 | 2P% | #19852.0 |
| 34.6#143 | 3P% | #3430.9 |
| 74.7#95 | FT% | — |
| 43.7#98 | 3PA rate | #14840.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
USC
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Washington78 | L 79–83 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | UCLA18 | L 68–89 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Washington78 | L 72–91 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Nebraska19 | L 67–82 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | UCLA18 | L 62–81 |
San Diego
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Seattle115 | L 56–58 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Loyola Marymount136 | W 66–62 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Portland181 | L 74–87 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Oregon St.93 | L 82–92 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Loyola Marymount136 | L 65–77 |
