Model line
UCLA −5.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
UCLA 72%
Projected tempo
69.2
possessions
Site
Neutral
28%Win probability72%
The model makes UCLA a 5.7-point favorite, winning about 72 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Saint Mary's offense vs UCLA defense
| Saint Mary's O | Stat | UCLA D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#287 | Tempo | #30865.8 |
| 52.8#111 | eFG% | #12050.3 |
| 16.8#185 | TOV% | #8718.3 |
| 37.5#15 | ORB% | #30233.1 |
| 35.5#164 | FT rate | #15734.2 |
| 8.8#136 | Block% | #1489.9 |
| 57.8#60 | Assist% | #35863.1 |
| 49.8#262 | 2P% | #20252.1 |
| 38.7#10 | 3P% | #6632.0 |
| 80.3#2 | FT% | — |
| 36.4#242 | 3PA rate | #3744.7 |
UCLA offense vs Saint Mary's defense
| UCLA O | Stat | Saint Mary's D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.8#308 | Tempo | #28766.2 |
| 53.6#82 | eFG% | #2046.8 |
| 13.3#11 | TOV% | #27215.2 |
| 31.2#160 | ORB% | #423.9 |
| 32.8#241 | FT rate | #1125.7 |
| 8.0#60 | Block% | #1579.7 |
| 58.9#45 | Assist% | #20453.1 |
| 51.8#178 | 2P% | #2346.7 |
| 37.9#20 | 3P% | #4131.3 |
| 76.6#40 | FT% | — |
| 35.7#255 | 3PA rate | #26237.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Saint Mary's
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Texas A&M33 | L 50–63 |
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Santa Clara86 | L 71–76 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Gonzaga17 | W 70–59 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Santa Clara86 | W 86–67 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Washington St.131 | W 83–67 |
UCLA
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Connecticut3 | L 57–73 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | UCF58 | W 75–71 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Purdue29 | L 66–73 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 88–84 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Rutgers75 | W 72–59 |
