Model line
Saint Mary's −12.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Saint Mary's 90%
Projected tempo
69.8
possessions
Site
Saint Mary's home
10%Win probability90%
The model makes Saint Mary's a 12.2-point favorite, winning about 90 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois St. offense vs Saint Mary's defense
| Illinois St. O | Stat | Saint Mary's D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#214 | Tempo | #28766.2 |
| 53.6#80 | eFG% | #2046.8 |
| 16.5#164 | TOV% | #27215.2 |
| 28.3#254 | ORB% | #423.9 |
| 31.7#261 | FT rate | #1125.7 |
| 8.6#110 | Block% | #1579.7 |
| 51.1#215 | Assist% | #20453.1 |
| 54.5#72 | 2P% | #2346.7 |
| 34.9#127 | 3P% | #4131.3 |
| 70.8#245 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#116 | 3PA rate | #26237.0 |
Saint Mary's offense vs Illinois St. defense
| Saint Mary's O | Stat | Illinois St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#287 | Tempo | #21467.7 |
| 52.8#111 | eFG% | #8549.6 |
| 16.8#185 | TOV% | #20016.3 |
| 37.5#15 | ORB% | #1025.1 |
| 35.5#164 | FT rate | #11732.6 |
| 8.8#136 | Block% | #3396.1 |
| 57.8#60 | Assist% | #15951.6 |
| 49.8#262 | 2P% | #7849.5 |
| 38.7#10 | 3P% | #12533.1 |
| 80.3#2 | FT% | — |
| 36.4#242 | 3PA rate | #32134.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois St.
| Thu, Apr 2 | N | Auburn27 | L 66–88 |
| Wed, Mar 25 | A | Dayton67 | W 61–55 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | A | Wake Forest82 | W 78–75 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Kent St.126 | W 79–58 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Northern Iowa129 | L 52–74 |
Saint Mary's
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Texas A&M33 | L 50–63 |
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Santa Clara86 | L 71–76 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Gonzaga17 | W 70–59 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Santa Clara86 | W 86–67 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Washington St.131 | W 83–67 |
