Model line
Maryland −2.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Maryland 61%
Projected tempo
69.6
possessions
Site
Maryland home
39%Win probability61%
The model makes Maryland a 2.7-point favorite, winning about 61 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Virginia offense vs Maryland defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Maryland D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #25666.7 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #31154.4 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #29614.9 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #11329.1 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #20535.8 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #1909.1 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #34761.2 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #29054.4 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #31836.3 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #6843.1 |
Maryland offense vs Virginia defense
| Maryland O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.7#256 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 48.1#311 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 18.6#304 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 33.8#73 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 36.4#142 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 11.6#328 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 45.2#332 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 48.6#295 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 31.7#295 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 72.2#199 | FT% | — |
| 46.9#34 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
Maryland
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Iowa41 | L 64–75 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Oregon57 | W 70–60 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | H | Illinois7 | L 72–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Wisconsin35 | L 45–78 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Rutgers75 | L 65–69 |
