Model line
Kentucky −2.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Kentucky 61%
Projected tempo
70.6
possessions
Site
Neutral
61%Win probability39%
The model makes Kentucky a 2.6-point favorite, winning about 61 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Kentucky offense vs Indiana defense
| Kentucky O | Stat | Indiana D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#102 | Tempo | #26266.6 |
| 53.3#90 | eFG% | #6649.0 |
| 15.0#62 | TOV% | #27815.1 |
| 33.5#78 | ORB% | #12429.3 |
| 37.4#118 | FT rate | #23837.0 |
| 8.6#111 | Block% | #2957.4 |
| 57.0#72 | Assist% | #8649.0 |
| 54.6#68 | 2P% | #5348.6 |
| 34.2#161 | 3P% | #12633.1 |
| 72.7#177 | FT% | — |
| 39.3#185 | 3PA rate | #26736.8 |
Indiana offense vs Kentucky defense
| Indiana O | Stat | Kentucky D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.6#262 | Tempo | #10269.7 |
| 56.1#22 | eFG% | #5848.8 |
| 15.1#69 | TOV% | #23615.7 |
| 26.9#302 | ORB% | #16430.1 |
| 35.0#180 | FT rate | #22036.3 |
| 10.1#246 | Block% | #2912.8 |
| 62.5#13 | Assist% | #25955.2 |
| 60.3#7 | 2P% | #7949.5 |
| 34.7#138 | 3P% | #5531.8 |
| 78.0#18 | FT% | — |
| 50.5#14 | 3PA rate | #16839.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Kentucky
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa St.6 | L 63–82 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 89–84 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida2 | L 63–71 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Missouri34 | W 78–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | LSU55 | W 87–82 |
Indiana
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Northwestern85 | L 61–74 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Ohio St.26 | L 78–91 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Minnesota63 | W 77–47 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Michigan St.9 | L 64–77 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Northwestern85 | L 68–72 |
