Model line
Illinois −5.0
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois 70%
Projected tempo
70.2
possessions
Site
Neutral
70%Win probability30%
The model makes Illinois a 5.0-point favorite, winning about 70 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois offense vs Missouri defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Missouri D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #18768.3 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #18751.5 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #18616.5 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #24231.7 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #19735.5 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #10810.6 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #18152.5 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #5548.7 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #34136.8 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #7243.0 |
Missouri offense vs Illinois defense
| Missouri O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.3#187 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 55.0#39 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 17.8#260 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 34.9#50 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 42.1#29 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 9.7#210 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 51.2#211 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 56.4#40 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 35.0#116 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 69.1#296 | FT% | — |
| 36.4#241 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
Missouri
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Miami FL13 | L 66–80 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Kentucky20 | L 72–78 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Arkansas23 | L 84–88 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Oklahoma22 | L 64–80 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Mississippi St.70 | W 88–64 |
