Model line
Illinois −0.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois 54%
Projected tempo
69.2
possessions
Site
Neutral
46%Win probability54%
The model makes Illinois a 0.9-point favorite, winning about 54 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Connecticut offense vs Illinois defense
| Connecticut O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0#294 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 55.3#33 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 16.7#174 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 36.1#24 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 29.9#313 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 9.6#196 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 65.1#7 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 57.4#26 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 34.7#134 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 71.6#217 | FT% | — |
| 40.3#163 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Illinois offense vs Connecticut defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Connecticut D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #29466.0 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #845.9 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #9618.0 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #8028.3 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #30840.6 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #915.0 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #8549.0 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #1345.9 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #2030.5 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #27336.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Connecticut
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Michigan24 | L 63–69 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Illinois7 | W 71–62 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Duke1 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | UCLA18 | W 73–57 |
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
