Model line
Illinois −27.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois >99%
Projected tempo
71.1
possessions
Site
Illinois home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Illinois a 27.3-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Penn offense vs Illinois defense
| Penn O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#160 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 50.4#220 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 15.3#89 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 30.0#201 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 33.9#214 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 9.3#166 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 52.3#186 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 46.5#341 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 38.3#15 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 69.4#288 | FT% | — |
| 35.4#265 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Illinois offense vs Penn defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Penn D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #16068.8 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #22052.1 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #13117.3 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #21631.3 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #2627.5 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #2318.5 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #20753.2 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #29754.5 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #7332.2 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #17239.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Penn
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Illinois7 | L 70–105 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Yale145 | W 88–84 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Harvard135 | W 62–60 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | A | Brown229 | W 82–61 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Harvard135 | W 64–61 |
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
