Model line
UMBC −0.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
UMBC 54%
Projected tempo
69.5
possessions
Site
UMBC home
46%Win probability54%
The model makes UMBC a 0.9-point favorite, winning about 54 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Vermont offense vs UMBC defense
| Vermont O | Stat | UMBC D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.4#348 | Tempo | #27366.5 |
| 53.1#103 | eFG% | #8149.4 |
| 14.3#36 | TOV% | #28615.1 |
| 26.2#319 | ORB% | #1825.8 |
| 31.1#280 | FT rate | #1225.7 |
| 8.3#86 | Block% | #3286.5 |
| 47.9#291 | Assist% | #1143.0 |
| 55.7#47 | 2P% | #8849.6 |
| 33.3#214 | 3P% | #10432.7 |
| 71.9#212 | FT% | — |
| 44.6#77 | 3PA rate | #24637.7 |
UMBC offense vs Vermont defense
| UMBC O | Stat | Vermont D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#273 | Tempo | #34864.4 |
| 54.1#68 | eFG% | #12350.4 |
| 14.0#24 | TOV% | #30514.8 |
| 24.9#342 | ORB% | #223.0 |
| 34.1#206 | FT rate | #22536.4 |
| 6.4#11 | Block% | #2348.5 |
| 44.8#336 | Assist% | #7648.3 |
| 54.1#84 | 2P% | #5448.6 |
| 36.1#57 | 3P% | #26735.3 |
| 76.0#53 | FT% | — |
| 38.8#194 | 3PA rate | #12141.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Vermont
| Sat, Mar 14 | A | UMBC285 | L 59–74 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | H | NJIT336 | W 63–54 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Bryant320 | W 77–57 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Albany330 | W 69–56 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | H | UMass Lowell306 | W 66–64 |
UMBC
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Howard164 | L 83–86 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | H | Vermont189 | W 74–59 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | H | UMass Lowell306 | W 91–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | New Hampshire342 | W 84–69 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | NJIT336 | W 91–52 |
