Model line
UMBC −10.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
UMBC 87%
Projected tempo
70.4
possessions
Site
UMBC home
13%Win probability87%
The model makes UMBC a 10.7-point favorite, winning about 87 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Albany offense vs UMBC defense
| Albany O | Stat | UMBC D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.6#311 | Tempo | #27366.5 |
| 51.3#180 | eFG% | #8149.4 |
| 18.5#295 | TOV% | #28615.1 |
| 32.7#97 | ORB% | #1825.8 |
| 24.9#364 | FT rate | #1225.7 |
| 9.4#171 | Block% | #3286.5 |
| 48.9#266 | Assist% | #1143.0 |
| 52.8#134 | 2P% | #8849.6 |
| 32.6#248 | 3P% | #10432.7 |
| 65.9#354 | FT% | — |
| 37.6#220 | 3PA rate | #24637.7 |
UMBC offense vs Albany defense
| UMBC O | Stat | Albany D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#273 | Tempo | #31165.6 |
| 54.1#68 | eFG% | #27353.2 |
| 14.0#24 | TOV% | #22915.8 |
| 24.9#342 | ORB% | #27532.4 |
| 34.1#206 | FT rate | #20235.7 |
| 6.4#11 | Block% | #5511.8 |
| 44.8#336 | Assist% | #29156.4 |
| 54.1#84 | 2P% | #22452.7 |
| 36.1#57 | 3P% | #29936.0 |
| 76.0#53 | FT% | — |
| 38.8#194 | 3PA rate | #13940.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Albany
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | UMass Lowell306 | L 76–81 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Vermont189 | L 56–69 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | New Hampshire342 | W 84–61 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | H | Maine337 | L 59–70 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | UMBC285 | L 62–66 |
UMBC
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Howard164 | L 83–86 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | H | Vermont189 | W 74–59 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | H | UMass Lowell306 | W 91–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | New Hampshire342 | W 84–69 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | NJIT336 | W 91–52 |
