Model line
North Carolina −35.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina >99%
Projected tempo
69.6
possessions
Site
North Carolina home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes North Carolina a 35.5-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
The Citadel offense vs North Carolina defense
| The Citadel O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.8#334 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 49.5#269 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 16.3#157 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 27.9#272 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 30.0#312 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 10.7#288 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 50.6#231 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 51.0#214 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 32.0#282 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 66.5#349 | FT% | — |
| 47.8#27 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs The Citadel defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | The Citadel D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #33464.8 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #36157.5 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #31114.7 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #22831.5 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #13533.3 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #2737.8 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #17552.2 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #36359.6 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #33536.6 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #4444.1 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
The Citadel
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | East Tennessee St.175 | L 76–83 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Chattanooga274 | W 88–85 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Wofford276 | W 93–90 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Furman147 | L 51–72 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Chattanooga274 | L 72–93 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
