Model line
North Carolina −23.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina 99%
Projected tempo
71.0
possessions
Site
North Carolina home
1%Win probability99%
The model makes North Carolina a 23.5-point favorite, winning about 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Western Carolina offense vs North Carolina defense
| Western Carolina O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#162 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 50.4#225 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 16.8#189 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 35.4#39 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 31.3#275 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 7.7#46 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 44.3#344 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 50.6#232 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 33.5#197 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 71.4#228 | FT% | — |
| 40.9#149 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs Western Carolina defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Western Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #16268.8 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #32854.9 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #32314.5 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #2326.3 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #25737.8 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #3047.3 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #7048.1 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #30754.8 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #33836.7 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #5143.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Western Carolina
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | East Tennessee St.175 | L 67–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | Mercer227 | W 77–73 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Furman147 | W 86–67 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Mercer227 | W 78–74 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | VMI344 | W 81–62 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
